Advertising spends in India are expected to grow around 10% year on year to Rs 61,204 crores, according to media buying agency GroupM. This is effectively a slowdown in growth from the 15.5% which it had predicted last year, and later ended up being a growth of 11.9%.
In 2017, there is a noticeable expected increase in the share of digital advertising, which is expected to account for 15.5% of total ad spends in 2017, at around Rs 9490 crores, as compared with Rs 7300 crores last year. Digital is the third highest category of advertising spends, albeit lagging far behind TV (Rs 27,378 crore, 44.7% of total) and Print (Rs 18258 crores, 29.8% of total). Note that this year, GroupM hasn’t carved out Magazines as a separate category: last year it had predicted that Magazine advertising would decline for the third consecutive year, down by 14.8%, to around 1% of total advertising spends; it’s not unimaginable to believe that Magazines would have dropped below 1% this year. In a statement, GroupM CEO C. Srinivas said that 2016 was volatile, but this year, “The first quarter will give a slow start to the year, with the market picking up from March-April, fueled by a stable recovery process post demonetization. Sectors that are contributing to this positive trajectory include Auto, Media and e-Wallets. In addition Government and Political parties will increase spending with elections in several states this year.”
– Digital advertising is expected to continue growing the fastest, with an expected 30% growth in 2017, compared to 47% in 2016 and 45% in 2015.
– GroupM expects video advertising to be the biggest growth driver.
– E-Wallets is expected to drive growth as well
– Mobile advertising is expected to be 70% of AdEx.
What GroupM doesn’t give us, though, is the split between platform advertising and the rest: Essentially, how much Google and Facebook make, versus the rest of the Internet. Growth in digital advertising doesn’t do much for the domain if most of the money goes to these two.
– Television is expected to grow at a marginally slower pace of 8% compared with 10.11% in 2016, even though there is growth.
– Television will continue to account for a majority share of advertising spends in India, at 44.7%, but it’s worth noting that this is a declining share, at least over the last two years.
Again, GroupM would do well to give a language-wise breakup of spends, as well as a split between News, GEC, Sports and others.
3. Print (Newspapers and Magazines)
– Newspaper advertising is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2016, a marginal improvement over the last year, where it grew 4%. It’s important to remember that TV and Print operate on a much larger scale than digital, so overall growth might be more, even if percentage growth may be lower, owing to the baseline effect.
– An increase in ad spends is expected from Government, Media and Auto
Again, a language-wise split here would be useful, as well as a split between newspapers and magazines.