Brokerage firm Credit Suisse (CS) estimates the government is likely to budget a $25 billion spectrum sale from the upcoming auctions (2016), out of which approximately 30% of value of spectrum is expected to be sold at TRAI reserve prices. CS further explains that the 700 MHz spectrum will see only a partial success, as TRAI’s recommended price of Rs 11,485 crore for the 700MHz band is 25% higher than CS’s estimates. It says this could be a negative surprise to some players in the market, as all spectrum bands, including the crucial 2100 Mhz and 700Mhz band are expected to be sold at a whopping $80 billion. The brokerage firm estimates that out of the total $80 billion worth of spectrum, only a partial $10-15 billion in sales would be generated in the upcoming auction, mainly sustained by the: - Easy availability of financing by the government from telecom players - Acute shortage of spectrum in the market in light of rapidly growing data volumes - Operator specific spectrum gaps for most operators. CS projects that receipts from telecom sector for FY17 are expected to be ~$14 billion (~Rs 990 billion). This could include: - Recurring license and spectrum fees revenues of ~$3 billion (Rs 220 billion) - Deferred payments from past auctions amounting to ~$965 million (Rs 65 billion) - One-time spectrum fees of ~$2 billion (Rs 200 billion) - The balance of ~$7 billion (~Rs 500 billion) likely from upcoming spectrum auctions. Situation vulnerable for players other than RCom and…
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