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Nov 08 Stats: 328M Mobile, 5.28M Broadband Lines

Statewise list of broadband subscribers conversion rate October 2008

By the end of November 2008, Indias wireline subscriber base had declined by 0.17 million (0.44%) to 38.05 million, and its broadband base had grown to 5.28 million, an increase of 230,000 connection at 4.55%. The wireline-to-broadband conversion rate was at 13.88%. (Charts in this post: Broadband connections and conversion, Mobile operator subscriber growth and marketshare, Statewise distribution of mobile subscribers, Statewise distribution of Broadband subscribers) For the last 6 months that we have been analysing the telecom numbers, two factors have stood out: Firstly, that the growth in broadband connections has too slow at between 3.06%-5.59% especially on a low base of less than 5.5 million connections, and secondly that the wireline connection base has been consistently declining, at 0.33%-0.71% per month. According to our calculations*, if wireless broadband does not come into play, India will achieve 100% wireline-to-broadband conversion by September 2012, but with only around 31.4 million broadband connections.  Three things can improve this situation:  -- A miraculous increase in wireline connections -- Launch of affordable wireless services. The ideal solution: affordable wireline connectivity, and the unbundling of the last mile, which involves allowing all telecom operators access to existing government wireline connections currently only accessible by the BSNL and MTNL. With the government vying for a public listing for BSNL, we think that the unbundling of the last mile will negatively impact the IPO since BSNL will lose a competitive advantage. Mobile The Mobile juggernaut rolls along virtually unaffected by the economic downturn in the economy. In November…

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