Oct 08: 328M Mobile, 5.28M Broadband Lines; India Cannot Have 40 M Broadband Lines Without Wireless

By the end of November 2008, Indias wireline subscriber base had declined by 0.17 million (0.44%) to 38.05 million, and its broadband base had grown to 5.28 million, an increase of 230,000 connection at 4.55%. The wireline-to-broadband conversion rate was at 13.88%.

(Charts in this post: Broadband connections and conversion, Mobile operator subscriber growth and marketshare, Statewise distribution of mobile subscribers, Statewise distribution of Broadband subscribers)

For the last 6 months that we have been analysing the telecom numbers, two factors have stood out: Firstly, that the growth in broadband connections has too slow at between 3.06%-5.59% especially on a low base of less than 5.5 million connections, and secondly that the wireline connection base has been consistently declining, at 0.33%-0.71% per month.

According to our calculations*, if wireless broadband does not come into play, India will achieve 100% wireline-to-broadband conversion by September 2012, but with only around 31.4 million broadband connections. 

Three things can improve this situation:

(more…)

India’s Information Technology (Amendment) Bill Passed By Lok Sabha

The lower house of the Indian Parliament - the Lok Sabha - yesterday, hurriedly passed the Information Technology (Amendment) Bill without a debate; the melee in the Lok Sabha centered around political oneupmanship, rather than legislation. According to media reports, the law allows:

– Interception of messages from mobile phones, computers and other communication devices
– Blocking of websites in the interest of national security
– Measures to tackle cyber crime: fraud, phishing, terrorism, pornography
– The setting up of a Cyber Appellate Tribunal

We’re trying to locate an updated version of the bill; here’s a copy of the THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (AMENDMENT) BILL, 2006 (via PRS India), and a copy of the Standing Committee report on the IT (Amendment)  Bill, 2006.

We’ll update with more on the specifics of the IT Act; we’re looking, in particular, for the following:
– Interception of person-to-person communication, and the situations under which the government may be allowed to do the same
– Incorporation of a “Safe Harbor” provision, like the one that exists in the DMCA. This will free platform service providers like YouTube from the liability that accrues from users who upload infringing content.
– Liability in case of copyrighted transfer of data via P2P - with the person downloading, uploading or both?
– Provisions for blocking of websites: The Indian government did try to block access to certain websites two years ago. My views on the same: How Can A Few People Decide What We View Online? and Uncert-in Reasoning.

Note: the Rajya Sabha is going to take up the bill today, and if passed, it will be made into a law.

State-Wise List Of Broadband Subscribers In India

The Government of India has released a statewise list of broadband subscribers in India, as on 31st October 2008. We compared the numbers with those for around a year ago, which were released in March 2008.

Important: Please note that this does not include the number of dialup Internet users in India, which at last count, was at 11.6 million subscribers. More details here.

*  Delhi includes Noida, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad and Faridabad.
* North East includes Meghalaya, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Nagaland & Tripura

Some points to ponder:
– Top 5 States account for majority connections: The internet penetration is lop sided in favour of a few circles: Andhra Pradesh (8.04%), Delhi (11.82%), Karnataka (11.42%), Maharashtra & Goa (18.75%) and Tamil Nadu (12.94%) together account for 3,137,699 broadband subscribers, which is 62.98% of the total base. 
— High Percentage Growth, Low Base: 64.99% growth in broadband lines is promising, but the growth is still on a low base of 3.019 million subscribers as of 31st December 2008. On an average, we’ve just added 196, 245 broadband subscribers per month.
— Absolute growth: Maharashtra & Goa led the way, followed by Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Each of these circles added more than 235,000 subscribers in the 10 month period, and they’re in the top 5.
— Percentage growth: In percentage terms, Maharashtra grew the least, followed by Delhi and Tamil Nadu, primarily because of the large subscriber base.
—  India’s most populous state - Uttar Pradesh, has only 238, 791 broadband subscribers and accounts for only 4.79 %. You may see that as an opportunity for growth, or an indication of the lack of Internet penetration.

Whats your reading of these numbers? Do share and we’ll update the post with your take.

Also read:
–  Q109: Quarterly India Internet & Mobile Numbers, And A Wireless Internet Story
– India Has 81 M Internet Users. Please Make Changes To Your Powerpoint Slides
– Oct 2008: Projections For 10M Broadband; India Adds 10.42 M Wireless; Crosses 5M Broadband

TRAI Mandates Changes To Short Code Services; Holes In The DNC Bucket

This is important for the VAS companies sending out SMS’: The TRAI has mandated mobile operators prefix a service provider and service area code in order to allow the authority to track unsolicited SMS’. Thus, an SMS received from the Hard Rock Café in Mumbai, if sent via Vodafore, will have to be displayed as VM-Hardrock. This is in order to help crack down on alphanumeric SMS’, the source of which was difficult to track. The deadline for the change has been set for Feb 2009, since the SMSCs that Reliance Communications and Reliance Telecom have, will have to be upgraded. Download the notification here.

I’ve been received unsolicited messages from the Hard Rock Café, after I’d given my number there to book a table, and MeraMobi, after I’d downloaded its app to try it out for a story.

All these notifications are steps in the right direction, but there really is no update on what the TRAI is doing about the DNC complaints. I’ve made several complaints since signing up over a year ago, and over the past four months, I’ve received no updates or calls from my service provider (Airtel) on what has been done regarding the complaints, despite calling up and requesting an update. Are mobile operators being held accountable the TRAI?

In the final quarter of the financial year, the Insurance companies will up the ante, and the unsolicit call problems will resurface…so who is eventually accountable? It’s not as if the DNC hasn’t helped, but it is still not very effective.

Do take a look at our list of Short Code Services in India

3G In India: TRAI Proposes New 3G Auction Guidelines; Delay?

Whatever the reason the policy makers put out, we’ve been expecting that the 3G auctions will take place after the next elections. Now the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released a 61 page document on modifications to the 3G Auction (warning: 6.3 mb PDF) From the press release:

• The standalone 3G operator who does not have any allotment of 2G spectrum should also pay an annual spectrum charge of 3% of Annual AGR, which is equivalent to the lowest slab of 2G operator. It is clarified that this is besides the administrative charges.
• The availability of 3G spectrum including anticipated should be put in public domain for the knowledge of bidders. It becomes particularly relevant as DoT has already decided to allocate spectrum to BSNL and MTNL.
• All available spectrum in 2.1GHz including anticipated spectrum availability within the next one year is put to auction so as to maximize the number of 3G service providers.
• Two percent (2%) of the highest bid amount as annual administrative charge during the validity period of 3G spectrum.
• a moratorium of one year from the date of allocation of spectrum in respect of payment of administrative charge, since operators will take time to roll-out services

3G In India: MTNL To Launch 3G Services On December 11th; Limitations?

MTNL has set to launch 3G services on December 11th, according to several media reports. This is in line with something that D Shivkumar, MD of Nokia India had said at the launch of the Nokia Music Store: that Prime Miniser Manmohan Singh will make the first 3G call in India on December 11th. This also co-incides with the Department of Telecom’s year-end conference - India Telecom 2008.

MTNL is getting a significant head start over private 3G operators, since the license auction is expected to be in January. There are murmurs that the 3G auction will be delayed further. I think if it gets delayed beyond February 2009, then it’s likely to be postponed until after the May 2009 general elections in India.

Will MTNLs 3G Service Really Be Useful?
MTNLs opearations are limited to Delhi and Mumbai, and it’s unlikely that 3G infrastructure has been laid out beyond these cities. Which means that even if you sign up for MTNLs 3G services, you can only use them within city limits.

There are likely to be interoperability agreements between the two public sector carriers - MTNL and BSNL; when BSNL had initially launched its mobile services, users were able to switch to MTNL networks when in Delhi and Mumbai, where BSNL wasn’t allowed to operate. But how much of BSNLs infrastructure has been laid out so far?  Remember that BSNL already has EVDO services live in Bangalore.

Will I Sign Up For MTNLs 3G Service?
Not for video streaming or whatever else they have planned, but I will sign up for fast Internet access/Mobile broadband. I’m using a Reliance Net Connect data card which is good for emails, and occasionally for posts, but the bandwidth and network availability is rather poor. 

P.s.: time for MTNL to change its logo, yes?

@ IGF: “Let Us Not Assume That Users Want Indian Languages”; PC Era Ended; Multilingual Standards, Voice Based Internet

Updated Below

At the Internet Governance Forum being held in Hyderabad, Ajit Balakrishnan, CEO of Rediff.com said that there is no evidence from the last ten years of the Internet business that users want Indian languages. Rediff has email in 11 languages, and 99% of the users prefer to use email in English. One of the issues is that “practically all of the 300 million young people who aspire to something in this country aspire to learn English.” Therefore “Let us not assume that users want Indian languages.” He mentioned that Nokia has experimented with Indic language keyboards, and pointed out Eterno’s transliteration app which allows the usage of latin characters for messaging in Indic languages.

During the Q&A, Ram Mohan from the audience put forth a significant point on the requirement of multilingual standards - for the creation of a common set of semantics and terminologies, and the need for a framework and a common structure for script and language-based solutions. “We’re talking about a problem that begins at the core of the Internet, at the domain name system, and goes all the way to Internet navigation. Multilingualism is often confused with Internationalized Domain Names. One is not the same as the other.”

(more…)