How many connections are likely to get impacted, assuming the worst case scenario, that none of the 122 licenes are bought again or sold? Our estimates suggest that this base will be over 76 million connections, which is roughly 8.52% of India’s connection base of 893.84 million connections (as of 31st December 2011). However, only around 70% of this customer base is likely to be active, so the impact will more likely be around 53.31 million connections, which is around 8.24% of India’s active connection base of 646.78 million connections.

Note that the impact is likely to be higher – our calculations do not take into account four circles for the Idea Cellular – Spice Communications combination – Delhi, Haryana, Karnataka and Punjab, where either Idea or Spice Comm received licenses in 2008 while the other already had services active; we’re unable to ascertain who the subscribers belong to, which is something the government will also have to take into account. So, the datasheet:

 

Note that data for Swan Telecom and Allianz (which received 2 licenses on August 1st 2008) has been combined, and we have no data for “Azare Properties”, which was also given a license on 25th January 2008, but only in Kolkata; TRAI’s telecom connection/subscriber reports do not have any data on this company

Some data to consider:
– The verdict impacts around 19.78% of the total connection base in Andhra Pradesh – as many as 12.98 million connections, most of which are a part of the Idea-Spice Communications combination. Spice Communications received a license to operate in this circle on 25th January 2008.

– This impacts at least 12.81% of Bihar’s connection base, around 7.81 million connections of the total connection base of

– 14.53% of Kolkata’s connection base and 15.98% of that of the West Begal Circle (excluding Kolkata) are impacted. 12.32% of Orissa’s connection base gets hit. At an absolute level, the base for these three circles is quite low.

– 6.29 million connections in Tamil Nadu could get impacted, around 8.31% of its base. Tamil Nadu has 75.76 million connections, the highest in India

– 7.01 million connections in UP East could be impacted, and the impact on Uttar Pradesh as a whole is around 11.87 million connections. UP East has 71.75 million connections, while the state of Uttar Pradesh as a whole accounts for 123.83 million connections.

– Among telecom opertors, Uninor gets hit the most, by virtue of being the largest among those who got licenses in 2008: it has 36.3 million connections, and licenses for 22 circles.

– Next in line is the Idea-Spice Communications combine, and even if we ignore the circles for which both Spice and Idea were given licenses in 2008, a base of 16.19 million connections is impacted. That is around 15.22% of its connection base of 106.38 million connections.